auto dealer in black and red logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

OEMs See Conditions Normalizing

More have moved away from agency model plans but see themselves taking more active role in customer relationships, Kerrigan Advisors poll finds.

July 30, 2024
OEMs See Conditions Normalizing

Most automakers said the agency model likely won’t make U.S. inroads in the next five years.

Credit:

Pexels/Erik McIean

2 min to read


Automakers have a largely positive outlook on the industry in the next 12 months, according to a just-completed survey of more than 110 brands.

The annual Kerrigan Advisors OEM poll found most automakers see retail profit normalizing and, not surprisingly, a more gradual electric-vehicle ramp-up to realistically match consumer demand. A significant number also expect sales to increase.

Most survey respondents, 54%, anticipate decreased dealership profits over the next 12 months, compared to 69% in last year’s poll. Those expecting flat profits increased from 24% to 41%.

A minority of brands, or 38%, see new-vehicle gross margins returning to levels experienced before the pandemic. Conversely, 62% expect them to settle at 50% to more than 150% past 2019 levels.

While nearly half, 48%, project that sales will be flat, 44% see them on the rise, and a mere 8% expect a sales slump, all despite affordability pressures on consumers. That’s at least in part because automakers expect inventories to continue their upswing, 70% of them anticipating days’ supply normalizing at 60 to 90 days, up sharply from 38% last year.

In good news for auto dealers, Kerrigan says automakers’ slower-than-expected EV sales have changed their views on the agency sales model. A majority, or 57%, said the agency model likely won’t make U.S. inroads in the next five years, compared to 34% last year. A smaller share, 18%, said they anticipate more facility requirements for dealers, down from 32% last year.

As for the customer relationship and data, the survey found most brands expect that OEMs and dealers will share it in the next five years, while 19% think the automakers will assume that exclusively, up by 16%.

DIG DEEPER: Why Dealer Associations Matter to Your Financial Health

More Industry

hands holding up a phone horizontally, zooming into a picture of a car
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 23, 2026

More Than Specs

Today's car buyers want more than technical specs: they want to know the true value of the vehicle and how it fits into their lives.

Read More →
Auto Dealer Today, Dealer Debrief, 10/23/2026/ with Lauren Lawrence
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 23, 2026

Q3 Auto Market Breakdown | Dealer Debrief

New-vehicle financing hit record highs in the third quarter, and negative equity continues to strain the market. Learn more in this week's Dealer Debrief!

Read More →
orange background behind a line of people with a crashed car in the middle
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 16, 2026

Automaker Advances Safety for All

A new report by Volvo Cars Safety Centre analyzed the impact of 50 years' worth of research in automotive safety development

Read More →
Ad Loading...
The outside of a Jack Kain car dealership
Industry•by Hannah Mitchell•October 9, 2026

Kentucky Store Leaves Family

An auto group stretched across three states picked up the Lexington-area Ford fixture as its second store for the brand in the state.

Read More →
Auto Dealer Today, Dealer Debrief, 10/09/2026, with Lauren Lawrence
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 9, 2026

U.S. Auto Brands Falling Behind

Asian auto brands are outpacing U.S. brands in stateside new-vehicle sales. Learn more in this week's Dealer Debrief with Lauren!

Read More →
Auto Dealer Today, Dealer Debrief, 10/02/2026, with Lauren Lawrence
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 2, 2026

U.S. EV Market Update | Dealer Debrief

The U.S. electric vehicle market is slowly recovering from the loss of the federal EV tax credit last fall. Learn more in this week's Dealer Debrief!

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Q3 Financing Climbs, red arrow pointing down, percentage symbol, green arrow pointing up, Auto Dealer Today
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•October 2, 2026

Auto Finance Numbers Set Records

Third-quarter data show how consumers are adapting to ongoing affordability challenges facing the new- and-used-vehicle markets.

Read More →
Cake with '50' candles on top
Industry•October 1, 2026

Auto Dealerships Can’t Afford to Ignore the 50+ Consumer

Younger generations may be all the buzz today when it comes to product marketing targets, but their older cohorts command a sizable share of purchasing power.

Read More →
Gray Toyota SUV parked outside of glass paned building
Industry•by Hannah Mitchell•September 25, 2026

Savings Seekers Boost U.S. Automakers’ Rivals

As consumers here look for ways to curb inflation’s affect on their budgets, brands offering plenty of alternative powertrains are closing in on home-grown OEMs.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Various graphs and sheets of infographics laid out with handwritten post it notes.
Industry•by Lauren Lawrence•September 25, 2026

The Slow Electric Ascent

Second-quarter data show that the electric-vehicle market in the U.S. is inching up, the majority of states seeing a month-over-month increase.

Read More →