June Auto Sales Forecast Cloudy
High prices and interest rates, paired with flat incentives, dampen demand.

Average monthly finance payments look to hit $747 this month, up 3% and a record for June.
Pexels/InstaWalli
When a mix of unusual factors has been sifted, retail new-vehicle demand has proven to be muted this month.
The preliminary results from a J.D.Power-GlobalData forecast come as no surprise to an industry in limbo as the U.S. awaits ultimate outcomes of frequently shifting trade policy.
Many consumers, already strapped with inflated vehicle prices and still-high interest rates, continue to hold off on vehicle purchases. Those pulling the trigger are paying more amid record finance payments.
Though June retail sales are up 7% year-over-year to a projected one million units, last June’s numbers took about an 85,000-unit hit due to CDK Global’s auto dealer software outage from a pair of cyberattacks, J.D. Power said.
Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales surged back in March and April by an estimated 173,000 units combined as consumers rushed to beat trade tariff price inflation, now-retreated demand that’s deflated June deliveries.
Further dampening sales are stagnant incentives. Though the purchase perks are up on their face by 2% year-over-year and 4% over May to a projected average of $2,727 per vehicle, they’re essentially flat at 5% of the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast. That’s down from 6% in January.
The average transaction price for the month is an estimated $46,233, up 3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, average monthly finance payments look to hit $747, also up 3% and a record for June, J.D. Power said. Loans exceeding 84 months, or seven years, are on track to make up 12% of financed June sales, up three percentage points.
Before the Trump administration started raising import tariffs in March, automaker incentives were expected to rise this year, J.D. Power said. Instead, the companies are pulling back in reaction to the tariffs while many hold off on sticker price spikes.
“This reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers, but it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines,” said president of J.D. Power’s Data and Analytics Division Thomas King.
LEARN MORE: How Your Dealership Can Weather This Economic Uncertainty
More Industry

EV Consideration Climbs
Despite the loss of federal EV incentives, interest has grown in the U.S., largely thanks to charging infrastructure improvements.
Read More →
August Auto Angst
The hot month brought hot-to-the-touch vehicle prices in the U.S. as consumers dived for more affordable models but found higher price tags to go with them.
Read More →
Arizona Stores in New Hands
The two franchises bring continued growth for a homegrown automotive group in its third generation of family ownership.
Read More →
Two New Rides Earn Safety Awards
Thanks to vehicle redesigns, two more vehicles have earned IIHS’ Top Safety Pick+ award that builds on the criteria of the lower Top Safety Pick award.
Read More →
How A Simple Phone Call Can Cause a Dealership Data Breach
Despite the sophisticated techniques fraudsters often employ today to gain access to dealerships’ valuable information, they sometimes use a somewhat old-fashioned approach.
Read More →
Texas Rooftop Gets New Owner, Name
Family-owned Lumos Auto Group acquired Acura of the Rio Grande Valley from Bill Bird and will operate the dealership as Lumos Acura.
Read More →
Hyundai Feeling Electric
As the automaker looks to the balance of the decade, it plans to significantly boost its electrified powertrain lineup, including more hybrids and its first extended-range EVs.
Read More →
Dealer Debrief: Luxury Brands are Losing Ground
The quality gap between luxury and mass-market auto brands is narrowing. Today, Lauren is discussing why.
Read More →
August Auto Sales a Mixed Bag
An early forecast shows strong business despite consumer hurdles, and hybrids are a big piece of their affordability coping strategy.
Read More →
Longtime Ford Store Changes Hands
The Virginia dealership joins a small area automotive group in a one-dealership transaction, moving from one family franchisee to another.
Read More →