The global new-vehicle sales picture puts sales in the West already at their peak or past it as those in China and the global South are expected to grow sharply, according to a new 2025 to 2040 forecast.

Munich, Germany-based management consultant Roland Berger expects China and global-South sales volume to hit about 60% of the world’s market by that time. Though it sees the combined Western markets of the U.S., Canada and Europe having reached their peak, it believes they’ll still hold a “crucial” market share.

Global new-vehicles sales will grow by an estimated 1% per year on average through the report period, compared to 2.4% from 2010 to 2019, the firm said.

“The global transformation that the automotive industry is going through is unstoppable and is only going to accelerate in the coming years,” said firm Partner Felix Mogge in a press release on its forecast. “The pace of change will be too fast for many companies. But the picture is not all bleak, because the disruption brings a great many new opportunities from which players that adopt smart strategies can profit.”

The Western markets will still post “absolute” growth of about $566 billion over the period, Roland Berger says. 

The fully-electric vehicle segment of the market will represent about 70% of worldwide sales by 2040, estimates the report, which calls the shift “irreversible.” The U.S. market, it estimates, will be between 42% and 60% electric by then.

It will come as no surprise to anyone in the industry that vehicle automation and connection will also increase over the period, “with software overtaking hardware in importance.”

Ride-share services, though they will also grow, will do so more slowly than earlier forecasts predicted and have only a minor effect on vehicle sales, said the firm, which expects the growth to be concentrated in urban areas.

The report says global auto market growth could either be dominated by China by 2040 or be more even between it and the West.

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